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Göteborgs universitets publikationer

Statistical models for the speed prediction of a container ship

Författare och institution:
Wengang Mao (Institutionen för sjöfart och marin teknik, Marin teknik, Chalmers); Jonas Wallin (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik, Chalmers/GU); Igor Rychlik (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, Chalmers/GU)
Publicerad i:
Ocean Engineering, 126 s. 152-162
ISSN:
0029-8018
Publikationstyp:
Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig
Publiceringsår:
2016
Språk:
engelska
Sammanfattning (abstract):
Accurate prediction of ship speed for given engine power and encountering sea environments is one of the key factors for ship route planning to ensure expected time of arrivals (ETA). Traditional methods need first to compute a ship's total resistance based on theoretical calculations, which are often associated with large uncertainties. In this paper, two statistical approaches are investigated to establish models for a ship's speed prediction. The measurement data of a containership during one year's sailing are used for the demonstration and validation of the presented statistical methods. The pros and cons of the methods are compared in terms of capability, robustness, and accuracy of the prediction. By means of the measured engine Revolutions Per Minute (RPM) and extracted sea environments along the ship's sailing routes, the statistical methods are shown to be able to give reliable speed predictions. Further investigation is needed to test the capability of the statistical methods for the speed prediction using engine power instead of RPM.
Ämne (baseras på Högskoleverkets indelning av forskningsämnen):
NATURVETENSKAP ->
Matematik ->
Sannolikhetsteori och statistik ->
Statistik
Nyckelord:
Performance measurement; Ship speed prediction; Engine RPM; Regression; Autoregressive model; Mixed effects model
Chalmers styrkeområden:
Energi
Postens nummer:
242091
Posten skapad:
2016-09-21 07:14

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