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Göteborgs universitets publikationer

Final outcome probabilities for SIR epidemic model

Författare och institution:
H. El Maroufy (-); D. Kiouach (-); Ziad Taib (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik, Chalmers/GU)
Publicerad i:
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 45 ( 8 ) s. 2426-2437
ISSN:
0361-0926
E-ISSN:
1532-415X
Publikationstyp:
Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig
Publiceringsår:
2016
Språk:
engelska
Fulltextlänk:
Sammanfattning (abstract):
We consider an SIR stochastic epidemic model in which new infections occur at rate f(x, y), where x and y are, respectively, the number of susceptibles and infectives at the time of infection and f is a positive sequence of real functions. A simple explicit formula for the final size distribution is obtained. Some efficient recursive methods are proved for the exact calculation of this distribution. In addition, we give a Gaussian approximation for the final distribution using a diffusion process approximation.
Ämne (baseras på Högskoleverkets indelning av forskningsämnen):
NATURVETENSKAP ->
Matematik
Nyckelord:
Diffusion process , Final size , Markov chain , Stochastic epidemic model
Postens nummer:
236078
Posten skapad:
2016-05-09 08:22

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