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Probabilistic Model for Wind Speed Variability Encountered by a Vessel

Författare och institution:
Igor Rychlik (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik, Chalmers/GU); Wengang Mao (Institutionen för sjöfart och marin teknik, Marine Design, Chalmers)
Publicerad i:
Natural Resources, 5 ( 13 ) s. 837-855
Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig
Fulltextlänk (lokalt arkiv):
Sammanfattning (abstract):
As a result of social awareness of air emission due to the use of fossil fuels, the utilization of the natural wind power resources becomes an important option to avoid the dependence on fossil resources in industrial activities. For example, the maritime industry, which is responsible for more than 90% of the world trade transport, has already started to look for solutions to use wind power as auxiliary propulsion for ships. The practical installation of the wind facilities often requires large amount of investment, while uncertainties for the corresponding energy gains are large. Therefore a reliable model to describe the variability of wind speeds is needed to estimate the expected available wind power, coefficient of the variation of the power and other statistics of interest, e.g. expected length of the wind conditions favorable for the wind-energy harvesting. In this paper, wind speeds are modeled by means of a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. Its dependence structure is localized by introduction of time and space dependent parameters in the field. The model has the advantage of having a relatively small number of parameters. These parameters have natural physical interpretation and are statistically fitted to represent variability of observed wind speeds in ERA Interim reanalysis data set.
Ämne (baseras på Högskoleverkets indelning av forskningsämnen):
Matematik ->
Beräkningsmatematik ->
Tillämpad matematik
Matematik ->
Sannolikhetsteori och statistik ->
Matematisk statistik
Wind Speeds, Wind-Energy, Spatio-Temporal Model, Gaussian Fields
Stokastiska modeller för vind- och våglaster (VR/2012-6004) Mer information
Chalmers styrkeområden:
Postens nummer:
Posten skapad:
2014-11-11 14:33
Posten ändrad:
2014-11-11 14:35

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