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Göteborgs universitets publikationer

Calculating the reliability of likelihood ratios: Addressing modelling problems related to small n and tails

Författare och institution:
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison (-); Felipe Ochoa (-); Jonas Lindh (Institutionen för neurovetenskap och fysiologi, sektionen för klinisk neurovetenskap och rehabilitering & Institutionen för filosofi, lingvistik och vetenskapsteori)
Publicerad i:
Proceedings of 14th Australasian International Conference on Speech Science and Technology, 14
Konferensbidrag, refereegranskat
Sammanfattning (abstract):
In forensic speech science we are often faced with the problem of having a relatively small amount of data which is also multivariate and distributionally complex. This results in a serious problem exactly in the scenario where potentially large strengths of evidence could be obtained, i.e., when the trace data are on a tail of the distribution which models either the prosecution or defence hypothesis and a large magnitude log likelihood ratio is calculated. By definition the sampling of a distribution is sparse on its tails and this problem is compounded if the model is trained on a small amount of data – small fluctuations in the training data can lead to large changes in the calculated likelihoods on the tails and thus large changes in the calculated likelihood ratios for trace data on the tails. Large-magnitude calculated log likelihood ratios are therefore inherently unreliable.
Ämne (baseras på Högskoleverkets indelning av forskningsämnen):
Data- och informationsvetenskap ->
Datavetenskap (datalogi) ->
Data- och informationsvetenskap ->
Språkteknologi (språkvetenskaplig databehandling)
Data- och informationsvetenskap ->
Statistik, data- och systemvetenskap
Språk och litteratur ->
Jämförande språkvetenskap och lingvistik ->
Ytterligare information:
Satellite event to the 14th Australasian International Conference on Speech Science and Technology.
Postens nummer:
Posten skapad:
2012-12-06 10:08
Posten ändrad:
2012-12-06 16:44

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